As Nigeria gears up for the 2027 general elections, President Bola Tinubu’s hold on power is increasingly challenged from within his political ranks. What was once perceived as a united front is now fraying, with key allies of former President Muhammadu Buhari turning their back on the ruling party and aligning with opposition forces.

The initial whispers of disagreement among members of the All Progressives Congress (APC) have now erupted into open resistance. Among the most prominent figures rallying against Tinubu are some of Buhari’s closest confidantes—former governors, ministers, and party leaders—who are now forging a new opposition alliance.

Notable among them are ex-Kaduna governor Nasir El-Rufai, former Secretary to the Government of the Federation Babachir Lawal, ex-ministers Rotimi Amaechi and Abubakar Malami, and former APC National Chairman John Odigie-Oyegun. These key players have recently thrown their support behind a new political coalition and found a fresh vehicle in the African Democratic Congress (ADC). This party has controversially appointed ex-Senate President David Mark as interim national chairman and Rauf Aregbesola as secretary, signalling a significant realignment.

The cracks within the APC are not new. Tinubu, who played a pivotal role in Buhari’s rise to power in 2015, now finds himself increasingly isolated from those he once helped elevate. Formed in 2013 as a coalition of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), Buhari’s Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), and the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), the APC was always a fragile alliance. Buhari’s victory in 2015 depended heavily on Tinubu’s political machinery in the Southwest and strategic alliances with northern heavyweights like El-Rufai and Amaechi.

Fast forward to 2023, and the political landscape has shifted dramatically. Tinubu, who described his bid for president as a “lifelong ambition,” secured the APC ticket amid fierce internal opposition. His victory was hard-fought and clouded by controversies—currency redesign chaos, a Muslim-Muslim ticket, and questions about his health and fitness for office. Despite losing in Buhari’s northern strongholds—Kano, Kaduna, and Katsina—Tinubu still emerged victorious in the presidential election.

The relationship between Tinubu and El-Rufai has long been transactional. Their fallout was swift and bitter after El-Rufai was dropped from Tinubu’s cabinet following security concerns. El-Rufai, once a close ally, has now defected to the Social Democratic Party (SDP), actively participating in a broader coalition comprising elements from ADC, PDP, SDP, and other disenfranchised APC members.

While this opposition coalition boasts heavyweight veterans like Atiku Abubakar, Sule Lamido, David Mark, Tambuwal, Amaechi, and Lawal, doubts linger about its cohesion and ideological clarity. Even Dumebi Kachikwu, ADC’s 2023 presidential candidate, has dismissed the coalition as illegitimate, condemning it for working with a leadership whose tenure expired in 2022.

Despite the mounting opposition, Tinubu remains a political master with a reputation for resilience. Known as the “master strategist,” he played a critical role in shaping the APC and securing Lagos’s political dominance in 1999. A senior aide close to Tinubu emphasises that the president is “unfazed” by the opposition and is already recalibrating his alliances and strategies.

There are reports that Tinubu may even consider dropping Vice President Shettima and potentially settling for a different Northern powerbroker, such as Rabiu Kwankwaso from Kano. With the PDP fractured and internal mutiny rocking the APC, the 2027 elections promise to redefine Nigeria’s political order—and both sides are playing the long game.

Interestingly, some of Buhari’s loyalists recently declared support for Tinubu. The group, called the Forum of the Defunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) within the APC, held a rally in Abuja and expressed unwavering support for the president. Prominent delegates included the Speaker of the House, Dr. Tajudeen Abbas, Governors Dikko Radda and Umar Bago, and former ministers and agency heads.

They openly committed to Tinubu’s leadership, with one leader, Hon. Farouk Adamu, affirming, “We are with Tinubu—just like our leader Buhari—and we believe he will be our candidate in 2027.”

This anti-Tinubu coalition dreams of replicating the 2015 breakthrough, uniting diverse opposition forces to unseat a sitting president. But Tinubu, with his keen political instincts, might have surprises up his sleeve in this high-stakes game.

In Nigerian politics, underestimating a tactician like Tinubu rarely ends well. As the countdown to 2027 begins, the game is intensely unpredictable—yet one thing is clear: The coming months will determine the future trajectory of Nigeria’s political landscape.

List of Buhari’s loyalists, associates in ADC Now

• Rotimi Amaechi
• Abubakar Malami
• Hadi Sirika (Buhari’s nephew)
• Rauf Aregbesola
• Kashim Imam
• Chief John Odigie-Oyegun

The political chessboard is set, and the stakes could hardly be higher.