Nigeria’s public debt has hit N159.28 trillion as of April 2026, according to the Debt Management Office. That works out to about N670,000 owed by every Nigerian citizen.

Dele Oye, chairman of the Alliance for Economic Research and Ethics, says the numbers are alarming. The Tinubu administration has borrowed N65.9 trillion in just 24 months. To put that in context: it took Nigeria 55 years after independence to accumulate N12 trillion in debt. This administration has borrowed more than five times that amount in two years.

How We Got Here

In 2006, Nigeria pulled off a major fiscal achievement. President Obasanjo paid $12 billion to wipe out $30 billion in Paris Club debt. Nigeria was briefly debt-free, and the Excess Crude Account was well-funded.

Twenty years later, that looks like a distant memory.

Under President Jonathan, debt crept back to N12.06 trillion by 2015 — manageable, but warning signs were there. Under Buhari, debt exploded from N12.06 trillion to N87.38 trillion — a 620% increase. The Central Bank was printing money through “Ways and Means” advances, and N23.7 trillion of that was later converted into long-term bonds, turning a government overdraft into debt that will be paid for generations.

Now, Tinubu’s administration has added N65.9 trillion more in just two years.

The Number That Actually Matters

Politicians like to point to the debt-to-GDP ratio. Nigeria’s is 35.5%, well below the IMF’s 55% distress threshold. It looks better than South Africa’s 78.8% or Kenya’s 65.6%.

But don’t be fooled. The real number to watch is the debt service-to-revenue ratio — how much of every naira earned goes straight to paying creditors.

Nigeria’s ratio was 116.8% in 2024, easing only slightly to 113% in early 2025. In January 2025 alone, the federal government paid N696.27 billion in debt service while earning only N483.47 billion in revenue. That’s a 144% coverage ratio in a single month. The government is spending more on debt payments than it brings in.

What Needs to Be Done

Oye says Nigeria has the tools and talent to fix this. What’s been missing is the political will. He suggests:

• Digitise tax collection and broaden the tax base
• Enforce the Fiscal Responsibility Act with real consequences
• Restructure Eurobond maturities before the big repayment deadlines of 2027 to 2029
• Channel oil windfalls into a constitutionally protected stabilisation fund
• Give states the power to generate their own revenue instead of lining up monthly at Abuja’s door

The prescription isn’t secret. The question is whether there’s the will to carry it out.