As Nigeria’s 2027 general elections draw closer, the political partnership between Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso under the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) has become one of the most talked-about — and contested — alliances in the country. While the duo commands enthusiastic support among younger, urban voters, a critical question remains: Can they actually win the North?

The answer, depending on who you ask, ranges from “absolutely” to “not a chance.”

The Case Against: A Party Still Unknown

Northern stakeholders are not mincing words. Tukur Muhammad-Baba, National Publicity Secretary of the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), puts it bluntly: the NDC isn’t well known across many northern states.

“It is not necessarily because people dislike the NDC. The party is simply not well known.”

His scepticism extends to Kwankwaso’s presumed stronghold. Despite the former Kano governor’s reputation as a political heavyweight, Muhammad-Baba questions whether he can even hold onto Kano State — where his most impressive electoral performance came — let alone deliver the broader North.

“There is even doubt about whether Kwankwaso can still hold on to Kano… Apart from Kano, his influence in many parts of the North remains uncertain.”

More significantly, he observes a growing fatigue among northern voters — a weariness with the old playbook of identity politics. The “Muslim-Muslim ticket” argument, once a reliable rallying cry, appears to be losing its grip.

“The average northerner is tired of being told that having a northern candidate or a Muslim-Muslim ticket is the solution to Nigeria’s problems. People are becoming more careful because previous expectations have not produced the desired results.”

What northerners want now, he says, is not slogans — it’s solutions.

Deeper Reservations: Trust and Identity

The opposition to the Obi-Kwankwaso ticket goes beyond visibility. Some northern groups are raising more fundamental concerns — particularly around trust.

Zaid Ayuba, President of the Arewa Youth Consultative Council (AYCC), argues that Obi faces a significant acceptance problem in the North, rooted in his perceived sympathy for the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB). Ayuba claims Obi has openly condemned the Supreme Court’s proscription of IPOB and its designation as a terrorist organization — a stance that alienates many northern voters.

“Obi and Kwankwaso are known in the North, just like Tinubu and Atiku are known. But politics is different from victory. Obi and Kwankwaso are not accepted in the North in a way that would make one think they will win the 2027 election. In fact, they cannot come close to that.”

Meanwhile, the Northern Youth Assembly has turned its fire on Kwankwaso himself. Secretary-General Hafiz Garba accused the former governor of betraying the very principles of the Kwankwasiyya movement — a political ideology rooted in the dignity and advancement of northern Nigeria.

“Kwankwaso now stands as the leading political embarrassment and disappointment of the northern region and the ideology for which our forefathers built the region and died for.”

It’s a heavy charge against a man once seen as one of the North’s most formidable political figures.

A political science professor in Sokoto (who spoke anonymously) adds that the NDC lacks the structural presence of the APC, PDP, or ADC across much of the region. “The NDC is a completely new party as far as party politics in Nigeria is concerned,” he notes.

The Counterargument: Momentum Is Real

Yet the NDC’s supporters tell a very different story — one of grassroots energy, youth-driven mobilisation, and growing defections.

In Borno State, NDC Chairman Haruna Amuda reports significant membership growth: “We are currently experiencing massive defections into the party.”

In Jigawa State, party chieftain Abdulrazak Birnin-Kudu says the NDC is building infrastructure from the ground up:

“We have coordinators in every local government, and we are mobilising at the grassroots. Our strength is the youth. They are tired of the old order.”

That youth factor may be the alliance’s biggest ace. Across Nigeria, younger voters are increasingly rejecting the establishment, and the Obi-Kwankwaso ticket appears to be tapping directly into that frustration.

Aminu Dutse, the NDC’s governorship candidate in Jigawa State, points to insecurity and economic hardship as forces driving voters toward alternative platforms. “